A new report from Palmer Market Research suggests the composite door sector will see significant growth through to 2020.
Findings reveal that the market for entrance doors grew by 2.2% to 1.40million doors in 2015. Installed value was also up 7.6% at £692 million.
According, to The Market for Domestic Entrance Doors, composite doors now account for 50% of the market, the share rising to 54% by installed value with the inclusion of PVC/ABS faced doors.
PVC-U panel doors took 25% of the market in both installed value and volume terms, while wood (including engineered timber) took 20% by volume and 15% by installed value. Steel fell to just 46,000 doors.
The study suggests that forecast figures for last year should also be expected to show a modest overall increase in volume. It is less sanguine about fortunes this year, however, in the face of Brexit.
Although The Market for Domestic Entrance Doors suggests only a minimal impact on the home improvement and social sectors, the report’s authors warn the impact of Brexit may be felt acutely in new build.
It states: ‘The main change is that we believe house prices in general, and new build properties in particular, will slow and even go modestly negative during the Brexit negotiations (2017 and 2018) as uncertainty in the wider economy prevails. And it is on a rising housing market that housebuilders are spurred to increase supply.’
This aside, The Market for Domestic Entrance Doors predicts that in its entirety, the door market will remain ‘almost static’ for the next five years.
Within it, there are however, significant gains and losses. Most notably a forecast 22% increase in composite door sales through to 2020.
Robert Palmer, Palmer Market Research, said: “Overall our forecast is for an almost static market for entrance doors over the next five years. Growth in home improvements will be offset by declines in both new build housing and social housing refurbishment.
“We are, however, forecasting significant differences in trends between door leaf materials.
“Composites have grown their share of the market over the past 15 years both in volume and value terms – and will continue to do so through to at least 2020 when they will be close to two thirds of the market.”
The findings follow Palmer’s publication of The Window, Door and Conservatory Markets in Housing in Great Britain, last autumn.
This argues that a flattening of the market in 2015 saw total volume fall by 0.7%. This was, however, offset by a shift towards higher-end products and higher value installations, which delivered a 2% increase in installed value to £4.20 billion.
Palmer continued: “Consistent with other areas of the window and door industry, some products are seeing growth, others are going into decline.
“This is variable by market but also notably, material type within those markets. For some we’re reporting a 41% drop in volume by 2020, others as much as a 56% increase in volume over the same period.
“This and continuing product innovation makes the entrance door market complex but an area of the window and door industry which in common with others, represents sizeable areas of opportunity.”